"WHO Reduces AIDS Predictions"

Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 1988. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

"WHO Reduces AIDS Predictions"

Associated Press (11/29/88)

Abstract: Geneva--While reporting that the worldwide total of reported AIDS cases grew 4.1 percent in November to a total of 129,385 cases in 142 countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) drastically reduced its longterm projections for the disease. A WHO press release Tuesday said that in 1991, 6-7 million people may have the disease. March 1987 estimates were for a total of 50-100 million in three years. WHO AIDS program director Jonathan Mann said "dramatic evidence of behavior change" in high-risk groups is responsible for the downward revision. However, the WHO report says that even the earlier figure may be "conservative if HIV penetrates and spreads through South American and Asia." Mann cited large drops in the percentage of new infections in San Francisco and in Amsterdam. Although "the danger is widespead and is continuing to spread," Mann said, the success of education programs made WHO "a bit optimistic." WHO says the number of reported cases is likely half the actual total.
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