AEGiS-SFE: HIV grows deadlier: A U.N. study shows the rate of new infections worldwide is expanding nearly twice as fast as previously thought

Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 1997. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

HIV grows deadlier: A U.N. study shows the rate of new infections worldwide is expanding nearly twice as fast as previously thought

The San Francisco Examiner; Sunday, Nov. 30, 1997
Examiner Editorial Writer

THE NUMBER of people around the world infected with the human immunodeficiency virus is much greater than previously believed, new research suggests. And the disease is spreading almost twice as fast as before, according to United Nations experts.

So, instead of 23 million people infected with HIV - the estimate in 1996 - the U.N. now puts the figure at 31 million. New infections occur at a rate of 16,000 a day, rather than 8,200.

This epidemic update is discouraging - but it should serve as a challenge.

In San Francisco in recent years, AIDS news sometimes has been relatively encouraging. With its high measure of public education and awareness, The City has experienced a decline both in new AIDS cases and AIDS deaths. Drug combinations have shown promise in keeping HIV-infected persons alive longer.

What the U.N. figures suggest is that the San Francisco AIDS model needs to be exported elsewhere - and fast.

U.N. researchers say the dramatically higher figures reflect new techniques that treat each country separately, not just as a part of a region. Nearby nations, it seems, are not the same when it comes to calculating rates of HIV transmission.

Two-thirds of the world's HIV cases - nearly 21 million - are in sub-Saharan Africa. Nearly 10 million people there have died of AIDS. Clearly, the U.N. needs to focus HIV education and prevention efforts on this part of the world.

But the U.N. also needs to intensify its work in countries, including China, India and Thailand, where HIV is spreading rapidly but has not yet reached cataclysmic proportions.

Among the cruelest findings in the U.N. study are estimates that 1,600 children under the age of 15 are infected each day with HIV, and 1,200 other children die from AIDS each day. Imagine two middle-school populations being wiped out daily.

"These numbers are so overwhelming that they numb the mind," Sandra Thurman, director of the White House Office of AIDS Policy, told a New York Times reporter. We trust the paralysis won't last long so the White House can take the lead in crafting a worldwide strategy against a global killer.
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