Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 2007. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.
Scenarios for all seasons
Mail & Guardian Online - October 25, 2007
Warren Foster
Winner -- Investing in Life: Metropolitan Holdings Limited: Live the Future Taking inspiration from the seasons, Metropolitan Holdings has developed an innovative strategy to battle HIV/Aids at grassroots level. Using the Doyle model -- an actuarial tool developed by MD Peter Doyle to project the demographic effect of HIV/Aids in Southern Africa -- Metropolitan has created "seasonal" scenarios that predict South Africa's HIV/Aids future. The four scenarios reflect the inter-relationship between a range of aspects, including socio-economic, infrastructural, legal, environmental and political issues, and describe how South Africa could look by 2025 depending on the level of action taken. The model is encompassed in the company's Live the Future project, this year's winner of the Investing in Life Award. The judges praised the project "for its approach to advocate and influence key decision-makers and stakeholders". Live the Future stems from the company's belief that, while there is an increase in effort and commitments, the response to HIV/Aids remains fragmented. The project aims to mobilise individuals and leaders from all sectors, with a view to drive collaboration. The project consists of two components. In the first Metropolitan developed the scenarios model and consolidated the research from 2005 to 2006. This year the company used its model to drive collaborative action. The model's use in community engagements demonstrates that while individuals are likely to have differing views on the current situation, they share views on the ideal future to work towards. In developing the scenarios several groups representing grassroots organisations, NGOs, labour, business and government met think tanks to discuss the future of HIV/Aids in South Africa. Actuaries and demographers created a holistic scenario plan. The scenarios are plotted based on the level of social collaboration and economic growth. In the Summer for All People there is a clear plan about what needs to be done and who should do it. More people are skilled and employed. Urban and rural areas are developed and people feel energised at seeing improvements around them. While there are still many orphans, they are orphaned at an older age as life expectancy increases. On the opposite end of the scale, the Winter of Discontent sees low growth and low collaboration. Leadership is weak and partnerships few. Instead there is a focus on blame and stigma and contradictory views on HIV/Aids leads to fragmentation. Beyond developing the model, Metropolitan has made the move out of the office to see the scheme take real effect in communities. Last year it launched an HIV clinic in Stellenbosch. Following a workshop held in the community that revealed that participants fell into the Autumn or Spring scenarios, Metropolitan facilitated an intervention geared at increasing collaboration between stakeholders in the area. This resulted in the Stellenbosch After Hours HIV Clinic, which the company is treating as the pilot project to roll out the national Live the Future programme. This year Metropolitan, with the Kagiso Trust, South African Business Coalition on HIV/Aids and the National Strategic Plan, launched an intervention in Alexandra in Gauteng, directed at more than 30 HIV/Aids-related organisations in the area. Desiree Daniels, executive manager for Metropolitan's HIV/Aids unit, says that the model can be effected in any area of crisis management. "If you took HIV/Aids out it could still work ... We've been using it with different stakeholders: police, social services, school, NGOs à they all fall within the scenarios. We found that they all would want to fall into the summer scenario or even better than the summer [scenario]."
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