Mail & Guardian (Johannesburg) - July 9, 2004

These include food and coal, according to Labour Market Frontiers, published last week.

The report also lays heavy emphasis on the youthfulness of South Africa's population, arguing that this could be an economic advantage. It adds, however, the country needs to contain the HIV/Aids epidemic and intensify skills training.

The labour supply research is based on the 1996 and 2001 censuses, which show that people below the age of 15 account for more than 30% of the population, while people older than 65 account for less than 5%.

It points out that South Africa's economically active population, aged from 15 to 64, increased as a proportion of the total population from 60% in 1996 to 67% in 2001. All segments of the working population grew faster than the population average of 2,17%.

The study shows that the relative youth of the country's labour force is characteristic of a developing economy, yet the "rush at the point of exit" - from death, retirement and early retirement - gives the labour market an ageing population characteristic of First World countries.

The study indicates that the South African labour market is one of "unmatched demand, untapped supply of unskilled labour ... and an apparent factor preference for capital instead of labour." It argues for exploitation of the "demographic dividend" - the capacity to create jobs and fill positions. This was seen as the key driver of growth in Brazil, Russia, India and China.

However, to exploit it, South Africa needs to develop a comprehensive skills development strategy.

On Aids, the study cites the Medical Research Council report, which found that death rates are highest in the 25 to 35 age group. It warns that because of Aids, the reversal of the growth in the working age population "is likely to happen sooner than the normally slow pace of structural demographic transition".

The research confirms the trend that formal, non-agricultural employment declined from 5,1-million in 1980 to 4,7-million in 2001, a period during which economic activity grew by 1,7%. Mining was the biggest shedder of jobs, especially gold, uranium and coal mining, which all declined by 35%.

Textiles lost 34% of its workforce, or 34 000 workers, over the 21-year period. But transport and storage haemorrhaged far more heavily, by 39% (154 000 jobs).

The biggest employment gainers include plastics, which increased by 47%, and public services, which grew by 31%.

The government was the biggest employer until 1994, when it accounted for 24% of total employment. By 2001, the figure had declined to 18%.Business services and finance and insurance grew by 31% and 28% respectively.

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