Mail & Guardian (Johannesburg) - July 11, 2003

The stop-start, one movement forward and one back has sometimes been used by Aids activists to demonstrate how the minister moves on the HIV/Aids issue. And so it was with the $15-billion that Bush came dangling as his commitment to helping Africa deal with HIV/Aids.

It is money that appeared well on its way. Then came the disclosure that the United States Congress still has to approve it, and, later, disclosures by US officials of several conditions before the money will be given.

On Thursday US officials said that at least a third of the money that will be spent on prevention should emphasise abstinence, nailing Bush's conservative Republican colours to the mast.

Bush said South Africa should draw up a programme of how the money will be used and stressed that his administration expected results. It wanted to see the resources being used effectively. "By money well spent, we mean that lives are saved, anti-retrovirals are provided, there is treatment and it reaches out to all remote places," he said.

But South African officials maintain that despite the pronouncements South Africa had secured a guarantee that the US will not prescribe how the money is used.

Bush and President Thabo Mbeki met this week in a meeting that was characterised by conscious efforts to emphasise the friendly relations between them.

In addition to the affable banter and the bewildered expressions of surprise at any hint of disagreement, the two presidents demonstrated their confidence in each other when Bush surprised all and sundry with his endorsement of Mbeki as an honest broker of dialogue between the Zimbabwean government and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

In the weeks leading up to the Union Building talks, it had appeared that Zimbabwe would be a bone of contention as US Secretary of State Colin Powell stated in an interview that Zimbabwe's neighbours had to do more to pressure President Robert Mugabe to resign and open up his country.

In a slap-in-the-face move Bush refused to meet the MDC, who had sent a delegation to South Africa, and then announced his confidence in Mbeki whom the MDC had labelled a liar. Bush went on to mention that Zimbabwe was being used to create tensions between the two presidents when they did not exist, although he maintained that the US would reserve the right to express its opinions on the Zimbabwean issue.

However, South African diplomats privately say that in a dramatic coup South Africa had managed to win an important trade-off, with the US agreeing to tone down its megaphone diplomacy in return for assurances that Mugabe will step down within the next year.

Bush was on his African safari, which started in Senegal, when he met with Mbeki in South Africa. His trip will be completed by visits to Botswana, Uganda and Nigeria. He is accompanied by Powell, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice and other senior state officials.

Both South African and US officials confirmed that the Iraq issue was not discussed despite the fact that before the meeting South Africa had made much of US unilateralism as manifested by the attack on Iraq.

Another controversial issue that was not discussed was the US termination of military aid to South Africa because of its refusal to back up the US's rejection of the International Criminal Court. US officials told journalists after the meeting that the issue that resulted in the suspension of military assistance to South Africa and 24 other countries did not even arise.

US officials have confirmed that Iraq was not discussed.

Given that the US did not bring along its senior economic affairs ministers, doubts existed before the meeting whether any economic issues would arise.

Mbeki thanked the US for its continued corporate interest in South Africa. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which allows preferential market access to some African countries, has enabled South African exports to increase from R7-billion in 1994 to R30-billion by 2002 - an impressive 329% growth. Officials said the South Africa government lobbied for Agoa to be extended from its current limited lifespan.

According to the South African government, the US has consistently been the largest foreign direct investor in South Africa, representing some 40% of the foreign direct investment since 1994. According to the Department of Foreign Affairs, the number of US companies has increased from 104 in 1994 to 900, employing about 125 000 people.

The presidents disclosed that they had discussed the South Africa Customs Union, which seeks to have five Southern Africa countries promote commercial relations in a fixed free trade agreement with the US, as opposed to the unstable Agoa arrangements.

South African is said to have lobbied extensively for the US not to impose onerous conditions on the trade partners. South Africans asked that trading conditions should not be more than the World Trade Organisation would allow.

Institute for Global Dialogue deputy director Shannon Field said while the visit consolidated important trade and investment links, it did not appear as if the US had made any concessions to reduce the agricultural subsides that put African farmers at a disadvantage.

"There also did not appear to be any forward movement on how South Africa can access cheaper generic drugs. It was quite good to see Bush acknowledge that Mbeki will take the lead in dealing with the Zimbabwean issue."

Given Bush's dismissive description of Africa as off the radar screen when he assumed office, said Field, "it appears he has changed his views and realised that Africa could assist him in his war on terrorism".Transcript of the Mbeki-Bush press conference

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