AEGiS-APPJ: The Incidence of AIDS: Evidence of a Multidimensional Epidemic AIDS & Public Policy JournalImportant note: Information in this article was accurate in 1990. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.
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The Incidence of AIDS: Evidence of a Multidimensional Epidemic

AIDS & Public Policy Journal 5, no. 4 (Winter 1990): 181-85
Robert M. Politzer and C. Howard Davis

We have previously professed the importance of examining month-to-month changes in AIDS prevalence, which may presage the future configuration of the epidemic. Such changes are obscured when they are embedded in the prevalence series. Our earlier study showed that intravenous drug use had become the dominant mode of HIV transmission among Hispanics in the early months of 1989 and that, if this trend continued, cases attributable to drug use would dominate the cumulative prevalence by the middle of 1990 as they did toward the end of 1988 for blacks. This report 1) describes the method of forecasting, 2) discusses the pattern of AIDS incidence within population subgroups over the past two years, and 3) forecasts monthly case prevalence by racial/ethnic and transmission subcategories in the short run.
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APPJ905407

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