AEGiS-09IAC: Sexual behavior change and future HIV prevalence in gay/bisexual men.

9th International AIDS Conference

Berlin, Germany — June 6-11, 1993

Sexual behavior change and future HIV prevalence in gay/bisexual men.

Int Conf AIDS 1993 Jun 6-11; 9:774 (abstract no. PO-C33-3344)
Morris M, Dean L; Columbia University, School of Public Health, New York, New York 10032.

BACKGROUND: Substantial behavioral changes have been reported in the gay community in virtually every survey of gay men in recent years. Less well understood are the effects these changes will have on the short and long term prevalence of HIV infection.

OBJECTIVES: This paper examines how recent behavioral changes are likely to affect the path of the AIDS epidemic among gay men.

METHODS: Data from the Longitudinal AIDS Impact Project in New York City (n = 1025) are used to estimate age-specific patterns of sexual contact and rates of change from 1981 to 1991.

RESULTS: Men in this cohort who reported receptive anal intercourse have reduced the number of new partners from over 11 to 0.96 per year during this time. The current lower rate of partner turnover, if maintained in the future, is shown to be sufficient to reduce transmission below the epidemic threshold. In the absence of other sources of infection, the disease would eventually die out under these conditions, though it would take over 50 years. This result is quite sensitive to reporting error, however. If respondents have under-reported the number of new partners they have, so that the true contact rate is closer to two new partners per year, the disease will instead become endemic in the gay community, with seroprevalence levels of about 50% among the exposed population in the oldest groups, and about 25% among the youngest gay men.

Keywords: AEGIS, Bisexuality, Homosexuality, Male, Prevalence, Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome, HIV Infections, Attitude to Health, Disease Outbreaks, Seroepidemiologic Studies, New York City, Human, Male, epidemiology, ICA9
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