AEGiS-08IAC: Indirect estimation of the prevalence of HIV infection and advanced HIV disease in the European Community.

8th International AIDS Conference


Amsterdam, Netherlands — July 19-24, 1992

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Indirect estimation of the prevalence of HIV infection and advanced HIV disease in the European Community.

Int Conf AIDS 1992 Jul 19-24; 8:We62 (abstract no. WeC 1094)
Downs AM, Ancelle-Park RA, Brunet JB; European Centre for the Epidemiological Monitoring of AIDS, Paris, France.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate, by back calculation, prevalence levels of HIV infection and advanced stage HIV-related disease in the European Community (EC).

METHODS: AIDS surveillance data reported by December 1991 were adjusted for reporting delays and under-reporting. Back calculations used a 2-stage incubation period with overall median 10 years in absence of treatment (stage 1: Weibull, 6.5 years; stage 2: exponential, 2.5 years). In stage 2 (advanced disease, T4 count less than 200), the effects of treatment were modelled from 1988 onwards. The HIV infection curve was modelled by a step function with 4 or 5 steps chosen to give the best fit by least squares criteria.

RESULTS: Baseline estimates were obtained using AIDS cases diagnosed before 1988 only (prior to early treatment). In the absence of effective treatment after 1987, projected AIDS incidence in 1988-1990 (PROJ-untreated) is significantly higher than reported. TABULAR DATA, SEE ABSTRACT VOLUME. *data at 31.12.91, adjusted for reporting delay and 10% under-reporting Preliminary results indicate that effective treatment (RR of progression = 0.35) of stage 2 patients (with 38% treated by Jan. 1989) could account for the overall discrepancies in 1988/89, but not from 1990 onwards. Further investigations are in progress.

CONCLUSION: In the EC, a cumulative total of around 400,000 persons are estimated to have been infected with HIV by the end of 1987. Recent AIDS incidence figures suggest significant treatment effects in all transmission groups. Updated prevalence estimates, taking into account these effects, will be presented.

Keywords: AEGIS, HIV Infections, Prevalence, Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome, Incidence, European Union, Evaluation Studies, Human, epidemiology, diagnosis, ICA8KWDaegis,hivinfections,prevalence,acquiredimmunodeficiencysyndrome,incidence,europeanunion,evaluationstudies,human,epidemiology,diagnosis,ica8
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WeC1094

Copyright © 1992 - International AIDS Society (IAS). Reproduction of this abstract (other than one copy for personal reference) must be cleared through the IAS.