8th International AIDS Conference Amsterdam, Netherlands — July 19-24, 1992

Int Conf AIDS 1992 Jul 19-24; 8:We51 (abstract no. WeC 1034)
de Bruijn E, van den Boom FM, Jager JC, Ruitenberg EJ; Netherlands Inst. of Mental Health, Utrecht.

OBJECTIVE: Apply research findings of HIV/AIDS-scenarios to long-term public health planning.

METHODS: The Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios (STG) in the Netherlands is set up to create public health scenarios in order to support long-term public health planning. The STG-project "National scenarios concerning epidemiological, sociocultural and economic impacts of HIV/AIDS on society" has been carried out by a group of AIDS experts in different disciplines (epidemiology, sociology, economy, biomedicine, ethics, law, public and mental health) supported by an interdisciplinary research team. STG arranges permanent close coordination between experts, researchers and policymakers. The following scenarios are developed: The reference scenario describes the most probable future image of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Netherlands up to the year 2000. It is based on constant trends in epidemiological development of HIV/AIDS and describes the possible sociocultural and economic consequences thereof. Alternative scenarios are devised by varying selected key parameters in the epidemiological, sociocultural and economic fields. Strategic scenarios are developed on AIDS control and care in a way that a "Self-determination scenario" opposes a "Detection scenario", and a "Regular care scenario" opposes an "AIDS-specific care scenario".

RESULTS: The AIDS-scenarios offer insight into a wide range of possible future developments of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the effects on health care, the costs involved and the influence of risky behaviour (sexual and intra venous drugs). Several background documents present the state of the art in the relevant research fields. Based on the scenarios and consensus-building meetings, STG offers recommendations to policymakers on prevention, seroprevalence research, organisation of care, etc. These recommendations have been largely followed in the official policy document on AIDS recently brought out by the Dutch Ministry of Welfare, Health and Cultural Affairs. The information and views presented in the AIDS-scenarios formed an important base for this document.

CONCLUSION: Scenario research and the procedure as carried out by STG appears to be a useful tool for the design of long range public health strategies in the field of AIDS control and care.

Copyright © 1992 - International AIDS Society (IAS). Reproduction of this abstract (other than one copy for personal reference) must be cleared through the IAS.