Using the Kalman filter and dynamic models to assess the changing HIV/AIDS epidemic.

Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 1997. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

Using the Kalman filter and dynamic models to assess the changing HIV/AIDS epidemic.

Math Biosci. 1997 Mar;140(2):131-54. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE MED/97198756
Cazelles B; Chau NP; Centre de Bioinformatique, Universite Paris, France.

Abstract: Many factors, including therapy and behavioral changes, have modified the course of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in recent years. To include these modifications in HIV/AIDS models, in the absence of appropriate external data sources, changes over time in the parameters can be incorporated by a recursive estimation technique such as the Kalman filter. The Kalman filter accounts for stochastic fluctuations in both the model and the data and provides a means to assess any parameter modifications included in new observations. The Kalman filter approach was applied to a simple differential model to describe the observed HIV/AIDS epidemic in the homo/bisexual male community in Paris (France). This approach gave quantitative information on the time-evolution of some parameters of major epidemiological significance (average transmission rate, mean incubation rate, and basic reproduction rate), which appears quite consistent with the recent epidemiological literature.

Keywords: *Disease Outbreaks/STATISTICS & NUMER DATA *HIV Infections/EPIDEMIOLOGY
970630
M9761213

AEGiS is a 501(c)3, not-for-profit, tax-exempt, educational corporation. AEGiS is made possible through unrestricted funding from Boehringer Ingelheim, Bridgestone/Firestone Charitable Trust, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, Elton John AIDS Foundation, Gill Foundation, the National Library of Medicine, Quest Diagnostics, Roche and Trimeris, and donations from users like you. Always watch for outdated information. This article first appeared in 1997. This material is designed to support, not replace, the relationship that exists between you and your doctor.

AEGiS presents published material, reprinted with permission and neither endorses nor opposes any material. All information contained on this website, including information relating to health conditions, products, and treatments, is for informational purposes only. It is often presented in summary or aggregate form. It is not meant to be a substitute for the advice provided by your own physician or other medical professionals. Always discuss treatment options with a doctor who specializes in treating HIV.

Copyright ©1980, 1997. AEGiS. All materials appearing on AEGiS are protected by copyright as a collective work or compilation under U.S. copyright and other laws and are the property of AEGiS, or the party credited as the provider of the content. .