A probability-based approach for predicting HIV infection in a low prevalent population of injection drug users. NLM AIDSLINE Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 1997. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

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A probability-based approach for predicting HIV infection in a low prevalent population of injection drug users.

Ann Epidemiol. 1997 Jan;7(1):28-34. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE MED/97186950
Cheng FK; Ford WL; Weber MD; Cheng SY; Kerndt PR; Los Angeles County Department of Health Services, HIV Epidemiology; Program, CA 90005, USA.

Abstract: This article proposes a method for estimating HIV risk in low-HIV-prevalent populations. Allard's risk probability model was used to compute individual risk scores. Based on a sample of 3854 injection drug users (IDUs) who were confidentially tested for HIV at five methadone treatment clinics in Los Angeles County, the following self-reported risk behaviors were used to derive an individual IDU risk score: (i) frequency of injection, ii) frequency of using uncleaned needles, (iii) number of people sharing a needle, (iv) frequency of needle sharing, and (v) type of needle sharing practice. The overall HIV prevalence for the IDU sample was 2%. The risk score was strongly associated with HIV seropositivity (chi-square = 16.1, p < 0.0001), but only one of the individual IDU risk behaviors (needle cleaning) was significantly associated with HIV seropositivity (chi-square = 10.9, P < 0.001). In addition, the risk score was strongly associated with HIV serostatus for both males and females. For females, however, none of the individual IDU risk behaviors were associated with HIV serostatus. Our findings indicate that when predicting HIV infection in a low-prevalence population, the probability-based risk score makes a statistically significant contribution over individual IDU risk behaviors.
Keywords: *HIV Infections/EPIDEMIOLOGY *Needle Sharing/STATISTICS & NUMER DATA *Substance Abuse, Intravenous/EPIDEMIOLOGYKWDhivinfections/epidemiologyKWDneedlesharing/statistics&numerdataKWDsubstanceabuse,intravenous/epidemiology
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Copyright © 1997 - National Library of Medicine. Reproduced under license with the National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

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