Characterization of HIV infection and seroconversion by a stochastic model of the HIV epidemic. NLM AIDSLINE Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 1995. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

Click here to return to AIDSLINE main menu
DonateNow
Print this Article


Characterization of HIV infection and seroconversion by a stochastic model of the HIV epidemic.

Math Biosci. 1995 Mar;126(1):81-123. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE MED/95210860
Tan WY; Lee SR; Tang SC; Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Memphis,; Tennessee.

Abstract: In this paper we use a stochastic model for the HIV epidemic in homosexual populations to characterize the HIV infection and seroconversion. Using computer generated data, we compare the fitting of infection distributions and of seroconversion distributions by different parametric models as well as by nonparametric methods. The nonparametric methods include the Kaplan-Meier method, EMS method, Bacchetti's method, and the spline approximation. The parametric models include most of the models which have been used in the literature. The comparison criteria are the chi-square statistic, the AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) and the residual sums of squares. The numerical results suggest that for the proportional mixing pattern, the EMS method, the spline method, Bacchetti's method, and the generalized log-logistic distributions with three and with four parameters provide better fitting for the infection and the seroconversion distributions in most cases. For the restricted mixing patterns, the EMS method, the spline method, Bacchetti's method, and some mixtures of distributions provide close fitting to the infection and the seroconversion distributions.
Keywords: Comparative Study Disease Outbreaks Homosexuality, Male Human HIV Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY HIV Seropositivity/EPIDEMIOLOGY Male Mathematics *Models, Biological Monte Carlo Method Stochastic Processes Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S. JOURNAL ARTICLEKWDcomparativestudydiseaseoutbreakshomosexuality,malehumanhivinfections/KWDepidemiologyhivseropositivity/epidemiologymalemathematicsKWDmodels,biologicalmontecarlomethodstochasticprocessessupport,uKWDsKWDgov't,pKWDhKWDsKWDjournalarticle
950730
M9570926

Copyright © 1995 - National Library of Medicine. Reproduced under license with the National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

AEGiS is a 501(c)3, not-for-profit, tax-exempt, educational corporation. AEGiS is made possible through unrestricted funding from Boehringer Ingelheim, Bridgestone/Firestone Charitable Trust, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, Elton John AIDS Foundation, Gill Foundation, the National Library of Medicine, Quest Diagnostics, Roche and Trimeris, and donations from users like you. Always watch for outdated information. This article first appeared in 1995. This material is designed to support, not replace, the relationship that exists between you and your doctor.

AEGiS presents published material, reprinted with permission and neither endorses nor opposes any material. All information contained on this website, including information relating to health conditions, products, and treatments, is for informational purposes only. It is often presented in summary or aggregate form. It is not meant to be a substitute for the advice provided by your own physician or other medical professionals. Always discuss treatment options with a doctor who specializes in treating HIV.

Copyright ©1980, 1995. AEGiS. All materials appearing on AEGiS are protected by copyright as a collective work or compilation under U.S. copyright and other laws and are the property of AEGiS, or the party credited as the provider of the content. .