Mathematical model for the AIDS epidemics evolution in Romania. NLM AIDSLINE Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 1994. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

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Mathematical model for the AIDS epidemics evolution in Romania.

Rev Roum Virol. 1993 Jan-Jun;44(1-2):21-47. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE MED/94318514
Cristea A; Strauss I; Stefan S. Nicolau Intitute of Virology, Bucharest, Romania.

Abstract: The individuals are distributed in 9 risk groups (adults and children), in which an HIV transmission way is predominant. Taking into account a simplified graph of the HIV infection evolution, kinetic equations for the number of individuals from each risk group--situated in various stages of HIV infection--are written. The approximative solutions of these equations give us: the characteristic exponents of the temporal evolutions of the main and secondary local epidemics; the ratios Ci/Bi and Di/Bi of asymptomatically contaminated and dead (as consequence of AIDS) versus symptomatically contaminated; the onset of local epidemics in various risk groups; the relative amplitude of the secondary local epidemics versus the main local ones.
Keywords: Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION Adult Age Distribution Child Disease Outbreaks/*STATISTICS & NUMER DATA Epidemiologic Methods Female Human *HIV-1 Male *Models, Statistical Risk Factors Romania/EPIDEMIOLOGY Sex Distribution JOURNAL ARTICLE

KWDacquiredimmunodeficiencysyndrome/KWDepidemiology/transmissionadultagedistributionchilddiseaseoutbreaks/KWDstatistics&numerdataepidemiologicmethodsfemalehumanKWDhiv-1maleKWDmodels,statisticalriskfactorsromania/epidemiologysexdistributionjournalarticle
941130
M94B0754

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