AIDS in Honduras: modeling the epidemic. NLM AIDSLINE Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 1993. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

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AIDS in Honduras: modeling the epidemic.

Int Conf AIDS. 1993 Jun 6-11;9(1):100 (abstract no. WS-C19-2). Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE MED/93333221
Nunez C; Hsu L; Zelaya JE; Sweat M; King TD; Forsythe S; National AIDS Control Program/MOH. Tegucigalpa, Honduras.

Abstract: OBJECTIVE: To project the number of HIV infections, AIDS deaths, and related health impact of AIDS in Honduras through the year 2000. INTRODUCTION: The first AIDS case was reported in Honduras in 1985. Since then, AIDS cases have risen steadily, numbering 2278 adult cases through November 1992. 82.2 per 100,000 adults are currently infected with HIV, which accounts for over 50% of all reported cases in Central America. Approximately two-thirds of these cases were reported among men, and 75% of HIV transmission was reported to be heterosexual. METHODS: Based on the AIDS case data and 21 published and unpublished HIV serostudies, three mathematical models (Epimodel, DemProj, and AIM) were used to project the future of the epidemic. RESULTS: Given the baseline assumptions, adult HIV prevalence is estimated to reach between 3.6% and 5.5% by the year 2000, which corresponds to an incidence rate of .6% to 1.1%. Adult HIV infections could reach between 93,000 and 107,000 in 1995, and 151,000 to 230,000 by the end of the century. Therefore, the cumulative number of AIDS deaths could swell to between 90,000 and 105,000 by 2000, with the number of deaths concentrated among young adults. Secondary impacts of the epidemic, such as HIV/AIDS related increases in TB cases, are also estimated. CONCLUSION: These estimates help demonstrate the potential magnitude of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Honduras and highlight the necessity for aggressive AIDS prevention and care policies.
Keywords: *Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/EPIDEMIOLOGY *HIV *HIV Infections/EPIDEMIOLOGYKWDacquiredimmunodeficiencysyndrome/epidemiologyKWDhivKWDhivinfections/epidemiology
931130
M93B5826

Copyright © 1993 - National Library of Medicine. Reproduced under license with the National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

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