Estimation of progression of HIV infection among homosexual men using immunological markers and staged Markov models. NLM AIDSLINE Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 1993. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

Click here to return to AIDSLINE main menu
DonateNow
Print this Article


Estimation of progression of HIV infection among homosexual men using immunological markers and staged Markov models.

Int Conf AIDS. 1993 Jun 6-11;9(1):100 (abstract no. WS-C19-1). Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE MED/93333222
Hendriks JC; Clark WS; Longini IM; Van Druten JA; Van Griensven GJ; Coutinho RA; Municipal Health Service, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

Abstract: OBJECTIVES: To estimate the distribution of progression to stages of immunological markers after HIV infection in a cohort of homo/bisexual men in Amsterdam. METHODS: All homosexual men with two or more visits with immunological measurements, participating in a cohort study in Amsterdam since the end of 1984, were included in this study. Participants were seen at 6 month intervals. The period of HIV infection was partitioned into 7 and 6 stages by progression of CD4 counts and anti-CD3, respectively. A reversible staged Markov model was used, for each marker separately in order to estimate the distribution of waiting times in each stage of infection. From this the incubation period from infection to AIDS was estimated. RESULTS: 455 HIV infected homosexual men, providing 3830 visits at intervals of 6 months, were included in this study. Before December 1992, of these 142 developed AIDS and 109 sero-converted during study period. The estimated mean incubation period from stage 1 to AIDS using CD4 counts and anti-CD3 are 10.8 and 15.1 years. Stage 1 was defined to be: > 900 CD4 cells/mm3 and > 2200 anti-CD3, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Staged Markov models are very useful to analyze censored data from prevalent cohort studies. Other immunological markers than CD4 counts can also be used to describe a staged progression to AIDS. The results concerning the incubation period are in agreement with both, earlier findings of this cohort, where the time dependent pattern of HIV is considered, and other homo/bisexual male cohorts. Since staged Markov models allow the evaluation of covariates, they may prove helpful for understanding the effects of treatment and progression of HIV infection.
Keywords: *Antigens, CD4/BLOOD *Homosexuality *HIV Infections/EPIDEMIOLOGY *Models, StatisticalKWDantigens,cd4/bloodKWDhomosexualityKWDhivinfections/epidemiologyKWDmodels,statistical
931130
M93B5825

Copyright © 1993 - National Library of Medicine. Reproduced under license with the National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

AEGiS is a 501(c)3, not-for-profit, tax-exempt, educational corporation. AEGiS is made possible through unrestricted funding from Boehringer Ingelheim, Bridgestone/Firestone Charitable Trust, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, Elton John AIDS Foundation, Gill Foundation, the National Library of Medicine, Quest Diagnostics, Roche and Trimeris, and donations from users like you. Always watch for outdated information. This article first appeared in 1993. This material is designed to support, not replace, the relationship that exists between you and your doctor.

AEGiS presents published material, reprinted with permission and neither endorses nor opposes any material. All information contained on this website, including information relating to health conditions, products, and treatments, is for informational purposes only. It is often presented in summary or aggregate form. It is not meant to be a substitute for the advice provided by your own physician or other medical professionals. Always discuss treatment options with a doctor who specializes in treating HIV.

Copyright ©1980, 1993. AEGiS. All materials appearing on AEGiS are protected by copyright as a collective work or compilation under U.S. copyright and other laws and are the property of AEGiS, or the party credited as the provider of the content. .