A generalized chain binomial model with application to HIV infection. NLM AIDSLINE Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 1992. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

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A generalized chain binomial model with application to HIV infection.

Math Biosci. 1990 Sep;101(1):99-119. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE MED/92199675
Ng J; Orav EJ; Harvard School of Public Health, Department of Biostatistics,; Boston, Massachusetts 02115.

Abstract: The original Reed-Frost formulation of the chain binomial model is mathematically equivalent to a stochastic model allowing a Poisson number of effective contacts in a time interval. Their formulation cannot accommodate survey data that necessarily correspond to more complex distributions of partners or contacts, or to large populations where complete random mixing is unlikely. This paper generalizes the Reed-Frost model to accommodate these situations in both the one- and two-population settings. The extension to multiple populations is also outlined. Using the model to predict HIV incidence in San Francisco's homosexual population, we show that the total number of contacts over all partners is more important than the distribution of contacts among partners in determining the number of infected.
Keywords: Human HIV Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION Male Mathematics Models, Biological San Francisco/EPIDEMIOLOGY Sexual Partners Stochastic Processes Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S. JOURNAL ARTICLEKWDhumanhivinfections/KWDepidemiology/transmissionmalemathematicsmodels,biologicalsanfrancisco/epidemiologysexualpartnersstochasticprocessessupport,non-uKWDsKWDgov'tsupport,uKWDsKWDgov't,pKWDhKWDsKWDjournalarticle
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M9271083

Copyright © 1992 - National Library of Medicine. Reproduced under license with the National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

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