THE PREVALENCE OF HIV INFECTION IN THE UNITED STATES: A REAPPRAISAL OF THE PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE ESTIMATE NLM AIDSLINE Important note: Information in this article was accurate in 1990. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date.

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THE PREVALENCE OF HIV INFECTION IN THE UNITED STATES: A REAPPRAISAL OF THE PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE ESTIMATE

AIDS Clinical Review 1989. Volberding P and Jacobson MA, eds. New York, Marcel Dekker, p. 1-17, 1989.. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE ICDB/90659409
Osmond DH; Moss AR; Univ. of California--San Francisco, San Francisco, CA

Abstract: The Public Health Service (PHS) estimate of the prevalence of HIV infection in the US is examined. The authors argue that the PHS estimate of 1-1.5 million infected Americans is too high by a factor of two; their midrange estimate of the number of seropositives in the US is about 650,000. Estimation methods used in the PHS report are reviewed, and a compromise approach is described that works backwards from the number of reported AIDS cases to the number of seropositives, but without a parametric model. The compromise approach uses a consensus estimate of progression rates to AIDS among seropositives and makes fewer assumptions than does the PHS method. The methods and resulting estimates are critically compared, and the revised estimate is more consistent with data collected in extensive studies of HIV-infected persons in San Francisco. The heterosexual spread of HIV in the US is also discussed in detail. (27 Refs)
Keywords: Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/EPIDEMIOLOGY Cross-Sectional Studies *Disease Outbreaks Human HIV Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION HIV Seroprevalence Incidence Risk Factors San Francisco Sex Behavior United States United States Public Health Service MONOGRAPH REVIEW, TUTORIAL REVIEWKWDacquiredimmunodeficiencysyndrome/epidemiologycross-sectionalstudiesKWDdiseaseoutbreakshumanhivinfections/KWDepidemiology/transmissionhivseroprevalenceincidenceriskfactorssanfranciscosexbehaviorunitedstatesunitedstatespublichealthservicemonographreview,tutorialreview
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Copyright © 1990 - National Library of Medicine. Reproduced under license with the National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

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