JOHANNESBURG, Dec 11, 2006 (AFP) - South Africa, which has the world's second heaviest caseload of HIV/AIDS, has seen average life expectancy fall by 13 years since 1990 to 51, a new study has said.
A survey by the Medical Research Council and Actuarial Society of South Africa, based on epidemiological and demographic data, said life expectancy this year was "estimated to be 49 years for males and 53 years for females" or an average of 51.
"By 2005, the HIV/AIDS pandemic has already taken about 13 years off life expectancy," it said.
Senior MRC Researcher Debbie Bradshaw said life expectancy in South Africa was on average 64 years in 1990, but had now dropped to 51.
Bradshaw said she was most disturbed by figures showing that infections were skyrocketing among women between the ages of 15 and 24, with a high of 160,000 new infections in 2006 which are not expected to slow down any time soon.
"Even though there is an increase in condom use and there are signs of behaviour change the model indicates this is just not enough to slow down the epidemic," Bradshaw said.
A recent action plan released by the government aims at reducing new infections by 2011. It is hinged on prevention and treatment and aims to change sexual behaviour among the youth.
"Mortality rates in 1990 suggested that a 15-year-old had a 29 percent chance of dying before the age of 60, but mortality rates in 2006 suggest that 15-year-olds have a 56 percent chance of dying before they reach sixty," the report said.
A mathematical AIDS model was used to determine how much the disease contributed to the decline in population figures.
South Africa is second to India as the country with the highest number of HIV-infected people in the world. Around 5.5 million people in a population of 47 million are living with HIV or AIDS.
"Approximately 230,000 HIV-infected individuals were receiving antiretroviral treatment and a further 540,000 were sick with AIDS but not receiving treatment," researchers said.
The government has come under fire for delays in rolling out lifesaving antiretroviral drugs. A diet of beetroot, garlic and lemon touted by Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang has been criticised abroad, and most recently by her own deputy.
In an interview with a British newspaper, hailed by South Africa's Treatment Action Campaign AIDS lobby group as a defining moment, Deputy Health Minister Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge condemned the confusing messages the government had sent out about the disease.
She said both Tshabalala-Msimang and President Thabo Mbeki had to accept responsibility for this confusion.
"If I use the example of traditional medicine, I think it was irresponsible of leaders to say people have a choice... because how do those people choose when they don't have the knowledge that is backed up by science?
"It is absolutely irresponsible to say to people who are desperate, who want to live, 'Oh, go to your traditional healer if you want', because what traditional healers do we know of who know how to treat AIDS?" South Africa's Sunday Independent newspaper quoted her as telling a British daily.
According to government figures for September, 213,000 infected people now benefit from a government-funded antiretroviral plan, and 11,000 more join each month.
"Together with a declining trend in fertility, HIV/AIDS is also expected to lead to a noticeable decline in the number of children over the next ten years," the report said.
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