UNITED NATIONS, Dec 3 (AFP) - The United Nations on Tuesday urged developing countries to invest in family planning to cut fertility rates and open a "demographic window" for economic growth.
"There is solid evidence, based on two generations of experience and research, that there is a 'population effect' on economic growth," the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) said in a new report.
UNFPA provides almost six billion dollars a year to reproductive health programmes, which include care for pregnant women and newborn babies and prevention of sexually transmitted diseases and HIV/AIDS as well as family planning.
The report, "People, Poverty and Possibilities", argued that addressing population concerns was crucial to meeting the UN's Millennium Summit goals, which include halving global poverty and arresting the spread of HIV/AIDS by 2015.
It encouraged governments in poor countries to follow the example of the Asian "tiger" nations, which invested in health and education early in the development process.
"Given a real choice, poor people in developing countries have smaller families than their parents did," the report said.
"This downturn in fertility at the 'micro' level translates within a generation into potential economic growth at the 'macro' level, in the form of a large group of working-age people supporting relatively fewer older and younger dependents."
A study by the National Research Council in the United States in 1986 concluded that, despite its important effect on households, population growth had no impact on overall economic growth.
But the UNFPA report cited new research to show that the effect of declining fertility in Brazil had been equal to an annual increase of 0.7 percent in per capita gross domestic product.
Brazil's fertility rate is estimated at 2.15 children per woman, just above the replacement rate of 2.10 required to keep a population stable. The average rate for Latin America is 2.50.
While the average fertility rate for developing countries has dropped from six children per woman to about 2.90 since 1960, it remains at 5.20 in the least developed regions.
Projections by the UN Population Division -- which have proved remarkably accurate in the past -- show the world's population rising from just over six billion today to 9.3 billion by mid-century, almost entirely due to demographic growth in the poorest countries.
"The big question for national leaders, legislators, policy experts and decision-makers is whether to make the necessary changes in policy and practice in the next decade, and whether the international community will make the necessary efforts to help them succeed," the UNFPA report said.
The "demographic window" opened by falling fertility offered a once-only opportunity for economic growth, it explained.
The window opens as the number of younger children decreases but closes again as the proportion of older people rises.
"Many countries are entering the transitional period," the report said.
Countries in South Asia will reach their peak ratio of workers to dependents between 2015 and 2025, while those in Latin America will do so between 2020 and 2030, it said.
In sub-Saharan Africa, fertility is so high that half the population is below the age of 17.6 years and the worker-dependents ratio is lower today than it was in 1950, the report said.
Some countries in Africa had begun their demographic transition, but "progress will depend on the availability of reproductive health services including family planning," it said.
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