WASHINGTON, Dec 18 (AFP) - US scientists have managed to identify signs that can help predict when HIV-infected people will develop full-blown AIDS, according to a study released in the December issue of The Journal of Virology.

"We think we can now predict the progression of the disease three of four years before the onset of clinical symptoms of AIDS," said Washington (state) University Professor James Mullins, the lead author of the study.

"This capability is important, because by the time it is recognized that someone has entered the clinical phase, it may be too late to treat effectively," he added.

The Mullins-led team studied the blood of nine HIV-positive gay men.

"Analyzing these sequential blood samples, we found there is predictability in the development of AIDS," said professor Raj Shankarappa, another author of the study.

"It was true of all nine people in this study, and we think it will occur in most cases of AIDS."

Some HIV-positive people contract AIDS a year after being infected but the average progression is nine years. Some HIV-positive patients never develop AIDS.

The Washington University scientists analyzed three factors at sequential time points: how much the virus had mutated from its original form, how diverse the virus population became, and the appearance of X4 viruses, capable of utilizing a T-cell receptor called CXCR4, to develop the infection.

"The phases describe a consistent pattern of viral evolution during the course of HIV-1 infection in moderate progressors," the study indicated.

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